The State of Japanese Politics and the Untapped Potential of Geothermal Energy
The State of Japanese Politics and the Untapped Potential of Geothermal Energy
I. Executive Summary
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current political landscape in Japan, the intricate roles of bureaucrats and politicians, the factors contributing to a perceived lack of national development, and the specific case of geothermal energy as an underutilized domestic resource. Japan operates within a dominant-party system, primarily led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for much of the post-war era. Recent electoral shifts, however, indicate a potential weakening of this dominance, leading to a minority government and increased political uncertainty. The relationship between Japan's politically elected leaders and its highly influential bureaucracy is a key dynamic shaping policy outcomes. While bureaucrats provide essential expertise and draft much of the legislation, they have also faced criticism for sectionalism and resistance to political direction. Politicians, formally holding the reins of power, are themselves subject to scrutiny regarding corruption, factionalism, and a perceived lack of consistently strong leadership. These factors, combined with socio-economic challenges, contribute to a sense of stagnation in addressing pressing national issues.
One such area where progress has been slower than anticipated is the development of Japan's significant geothermal energy resources. Despite possessing the third-largest geothermal potential globally, Japan currently harnesses only a fraction of this capacity. Various challenges, including regulatory restrictions related to national parks, strong opposition from the influential onsen (hot springs) industry, high upfront costs, and technical difficulties, have impeded widespread adoption. Nevertheless, the Japanese government is showing renewed interest in geothermal energy, driven by the need for energy security and decarbonization. Initiatives such as feed-in tariffs and deregulation efforts are underway, and successful examples of geothermal plants coexisting with onsen resorts offer a promising path forward. Realizing the full potential of geothermal energy in Japan will require overcoming these multifaceted barriers through technological innovation, effective policy implementation, and fostering greater collaboration and trust among all stakeholders.
II. The Current Political Landscape of Japan
Dominant-Party System and Recent Electoral Shifts
The political framework of Japan is characterized by a dominant-party system operating within a bicameral parliamentary representative democratic constitutional monarchy 1. For the majority of the post-war period, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has been the hegemonic force, holding power almost continuously since its formation in 1955 1. This sustained control has profoundly shaped the nation's political culture and policy trajectory. The extended tenure of the LDP suggests a high degree of stability, but it also raises questions about the system's responsiveness to evolving public needs and alternative policy perspectives. A party in power for such a long duration may develop deeply entrenched ways of operating and could be less inclined to embrace radical changes or critically assess its own performance, potentially leading to a slower pace of adaptation to new global and domestic challenges.
However, the political landscape experienced a notable shift in the snap election held on October 27, 2024 5. In this election, the ruling coalition of the LDP and its partner Komeito lost the overwhelming majority they had held in the House of Representatives since 2012 5. The coalition now commands 215 seats, falling 18 seats short of a majority 5. This electoral setback indicates a potential weakening of the LDP's long-standing grip on power and could usher in an era of greater political uncertainty, necessitating coalition-building and compromise. The failure of Prime Minister Ishiba's gamble to strengthen the LDP's base and stabilize his administration by calling the snap election suggests a degree of public dissatisfaction with the prevailing political order 5. The loss of a comfortable majority compels the ruling party to engage more actively with the opposition, potentially leading to policy adjustments and a more fluid political environment. This outcome could also signal a shift in voter sentiment and a growing appetite for alternative political voices.
Emerging as the largest opposition party was the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), which gained a significant 50 seats, bringing its total to 148 5. Other opposition parties, such as the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) and the National Democratic Party (NDP), also hold a crucial role. Notably, the NDP experienced substantial gains, increasing its seats to 28, and is now positioned as a potential kingmaker in the current political climate 5. The strengthening of the opposition, particularly the CDP and NDP, suggests a more competitive political landscape. However, divisions within the opposition and a lack of complete commitment to forming a unified coalition government indicate that an immediate and wholesale change of government may not be imminent 5. While the LDP suffered losses, the opposition remains somewhat fragmented, preventing a unified front capable of immediately seizing power. This situation has resulted in a hung parliament, making cooperation, especially with the NDP, essential for the minority government to function effectively. The emergence of a minority ruling system is an extremely rare occurrence in Japan's political history and is likely to contribute to increased political instability in the years ahead 5. This unprecedented situation introduces a level of unpredictability, where the need for constant negotiation and the inherent risk of votes of no confidence could lead to policy paralysis or frequent government changes, potentially impacting Japan's international standing 7.
Key Political Institutions and Their Powers
At the apex of Japan's political structure is the Emperor, currently Naruhito, who serves as the hereditary head of state 1. However, the Emperor's role is largely ceremonial, acting as a symbol of the State and the unity of the people without wielding any real political power 1. The elected head of government is the Prime Minister, a position held by Shigeru Ishiba since 2024 1. The Prime Minister is nominated by the National Diet and formally appointed by the Emperor 1. As the head of the Cabinet, the Prime Minister holds significant executive power, including the authority to appoint and dismiss cabinet ministers and to dissolve the more powerful lower house of the Diet 1. While the Prime Minister's formal powers are somewhat circumscribed, they also possess informal influence derived from party support and their ability to guide the bureaucracy 1. In the current context of a minority government, Prime Minister Ishiba's ability to act decisively may be constrained by the need to secure broader support from opposition parties 5.
Legislative power in Japan is vested in the National Diet, a bicameral body comprising the House of Representatives (the lower house) and the House of Councillors (the upper house) 1. The House of Representatives is the more powerful of the two chambers, consisting of 465 members elected to a maximum four-year term 11. The House of Councillors has 248 members serving fixed six-year terms, with half elected every three years 11. The House of Representatives holds greater authority, including the power to force the resignation of the government and to override decisions made by the upper house concerning the budget, the ratification of treaties, and the selection of the Prime Minister 1. The Diet, as the supreme organ of sovereignty, sees the lower house's ability to dissolve the cabinet and control the budget as making it the dominant legislative body 9. The current hung parliament has shifted the balance of power within the Diet, granting the opposition, particularly the CDP which now chairs the influential Budget Committee 13, greater leverage in the legislative process.
Executive power is held by the Cabinet, which is led by the Prime Minister 1. The Cabinet directs the government and the civil service and is collectively responsible to the Diet, which has the power to dismiss it through a vote of no confidence 9. The Prime Minister exercises significant control over the Cabinet, possessing the authority to both appoint and dismiss cabinet ministers 1. The recent dismissal of cabinet members implicated in corruption scandals underscores the pressure on the government to address issues of ethical conduct 11. Finally, judicial power in Japan resides with the Supreme Court and lower courts, ensuring an independent branch of government responsible for interpreting and upholding the nation's laws 1.
Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) Dominance and Implications
Since its inception in 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has been the dominant force in Japanese politics, governing for 65 of the subsequent 69 years 3. This extended period of rule, often referred to as the "1955 System" 1, has created a unique political landscape where one party has held power for the vast majority of the post-war era 3. Of the 32 individuals who have served as prime minister since 1952, 25 have been members of the LDP 1, further highlighting the party's central role in shaping Japan's modern history. Even after losing its majority in the 2024 general election, the LDP continues to lead the country as part of a minority government 1, demonstrating its enduring political strength. This extended period of dominance has fostered a strong connection between the LDP, the bureaucracy, and business interests, sometimes referred to as the "iron triangle" 14. While this close relationship contributed to stability during periods of rapid economic growth, it has also faced criticism for potentially hindering reforms and perpetuating established patterns of governance.
However, the LDP's long-standing dominance has faced increasing scrutiny and challenges in recent times. A series of scandals, including a significant slush fund scandal and revelations of close ties to the controversial Unification Church, have significantly declined the LDP's public favorability 3. As of March 2024, only 30% of Japanese adults held a favorable view of the LDP, marking the lowest rating recorded in seven years 3. This decline in public support coincides with widespread dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in Japan, with only around a third of the population expressing satisfaction 3. Furthermore, concerns persist regarding corruption and the potentially too-close relationships between government officials and business leaders 2. The assassination of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzō in 2022 brought to light the deep and long-standing connections between numerous LDP politicians and the Unification Church, raising serious ethical questions and further damaging the party's reputation 2. These recent scandals have significantly tarnished the LDP's public image and raise serious questions about its commitment to transparency and ethical governance 3. This erosion of public trust could have significant long-term consequences for the party's continued dominance and the overall stability of the Japanese political system. The scandals have not only weakened the LDP's standing but have also contributed to a broader public disillusionment with the functioning of democracy in Japan, potentially creating an opening for alternative political forces to gain traction.
III. The Role and Influence of Bureaucrats in Japanese Politics
Historical Context of Bureaucratic Power and Prestige
The bureaucracy in Japan has historically held a position of significant power and prestige, attracting highly capable individuals aspiring to public service 8. This tradition spans over a century, with its roots deeply embedded in the nation's modernization efforts 8. In the 1870s, a pivotal shift occurred with the implementation of a merit-based system for selecting civil servants, replacing previous practices of political patronage and familial connections 17. This emphasis on academic and intellectual prowess as the primary criteria for entry into the civil service laid the foundation for a highly skilled and knowledgeable bureaucratic apparatus. This long-standing tradition of meritocracy and prestige has instilled a strong sense of duty and competence within the bureaucracy, contributing significantly to its influence in shaping policy outcomes 8.
Under the Meiji Constitution, which preceded the current post-war framework, bureaucrats who were responsible for executing the Emperor's policies were regarded as holding greater prestige than elected members of parliament 8. This historical context underscores the deep roots of bureaucratic power in Japan, where the bureaucracy's role as the direct implementer of imperial will evolved into its current position as key advisors and implementers of government policy. Even in contemporary Japan, a career in the bureaucracy continues to be viewed as highly prestigious 8. The bureaucracy is widely considered to be a domain where the nation's most talented individuals aspire to serve 8. This enduring prestige and the perception of competence have been central to the bureaucracy's significant and sustained influence within the Japanese political system 8. The legacy of a powerful bureaucracy predates the current democratic system, and its influence has persisted through various political transformations, solidifying its role as a critical actor in Japanese governance.
Policy-Making Process and Bureaucracy's Involvement
The Japanese bureaucracy, while formally part of the Executive branch of government, plays a far more expansive role, including the drafting of legislation that is subsequently submitted to the National Diet 8. This involvement at the very inception of the law-making process means that bureaucrats are deeply engaged in shaping the content and direction of new laws and regulations 8. A significant proportion of the legislation enacted in Japan originates within the bureaucracy; approximately 80% of the bills passed by the Diet are submitted by the Cabinet, with bureaucrats being primarily responsible for their drafting 19. Furthermore, these bureaucrat-drafted bills typically enjoy a very high rate of passage, exceeding 90% 19, which underscores the extent to which the political leadership relies on the bureaucracy for the technical expertise and drafting skills necessary for effective governance 19. This high percentage also indicates the level of trust and reliance placed on the bureaucracy's competence and judgment by the political echelons.
Beyond the initial drafting of legislation, bureaucrats also play a crucial role in the intricate process of coordinating various interest groups and forging policy compromises behind the scenes 19. This behind-the-scenes negotiation and consensus-building are vital for navigating the complex web of stakeholders that can influence policy outcomes. Moreover, politicians in Japan often exhibit a significant reliance on the bureaucracy for policy expertise, a dependency that is partly attributable to a less developed think tank sector compared to some other industrialized nations 8. This reliance further enhances the bureaucracy's influence, as they become the primary source of in-depth policy analysis and recommendations for their political counterparts. Consequently, the bureaucracy wields considerable influence over the direction of national development 8. The Diet often approves legislation drafted by the bureaucracy with few amendments 8, highlighting the powerful position the bureaucracy occupies in the policy-making process, potentially shaping outcomes in ways that align with their institutional interests.
Criticisms of the Bureaucracy
Despite its historical prestige and critical role in governance, the Japanese bureaucracy has also faced various criticisms. One prominent concern is sectionalism, where bureaucrats tend to prioritize the interests of their specific ministries over the broader national interest 17. This "siloed" approach can impede effective cross-ministerial collaboration and hinder the implementation of comprehensive national strategies. This focus on ministerial interests, rather than a unified national vision, can lead to inefficiencies and a lack of strategic coherence in government policy 17. Each ministry may develop its own priorities and resist policies that might benefit the nation as a whole but could potentially diminish their own power or budgetary allocations.
Another significant criticism is the bureaucracy's tendency towards resistance to political leadership 14. Bureaucrats have been known to resist or even ignore the wishes of elected politicians, potentially exploiting politicians' relative lack of technical knowledge to shape policies in accordance with their own interests 4. This resistance can stem from a deeply ingrained belief in their own superior expertise or a desire to maintain the bureaucracy's traditional influence and autonomy, potentially frustrating the implementation of policies that have been democratically mandated 14. Bureaucrats, with their long tenure and deep understanding of governmental processes, may perceive themselves as guardians of the national interest, sometimes leading to clashes with politicians who have shorter tenures and potentially different priorities.
The Japanese bureaucratic system has also been criticized for its emphasis on producing generalist public officers, which can hinder the development of specialized skills and expertise that are increasingly needed in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and data science 19. This can limit the government's capacity to effectively address complex modern challenges that require deep technical knowledge 19. While the focus on generalist skills may have served Japan well in the past, it could be a significant disadvantage in an increasingly specialized and technologically advanced global landscape 19. The inability to attract and retain experts in critical new fields could leave Japan lagging behind other developed nations in areas crucial for future economic growth and competitiveness.
Concerns about potential for corruption also persist. The close relationships that often exist between government officials and business leaders, coupled with the prevalent practice of amakudari (where retiring bureaucrats secure high-paying positions in private companies or organizations that they previously oversaw), raise significant concerns about conflicts of interest and the potential for corruption 2. The amakudari system, in particular, has been criticized as a fundamental cause of collusion between the bureaucracy and the industries it regulates 25. Furthermore, scandals involving bureaucrats falsifying official documents and demonstrating favoritism have also surfaced, further damaging public trust 20. These practices can lead to regulatory capture and the formulation of policies that favor specific industries or individuals rather than serving the broader public interest 2. The potential for lucrative post-retirement employment could incentivize bureaucrats to be more lenient in their oversight of those industries while still in government service.
Finally, the Japanese bureaucracy is currently facing a challenge in attracting and retaining top talent, evidenced by a significant decline in applications from graduates of top universities 19. Additionally, the rate of resignations among younger elite bureaucrats has doubled in recent years 19. Factors contributing to this trend include reduced autonomy in their roles and long working hours, leading to dissatisfaction 19. This decline in both the quality and quantity of individuals seeking careers in the bureaucracy could weaken its capacity to effectively formulate and implement policy in the future 19. If the civil service is no longer perceived as an attractive career path for the most talented graduates, the long-term effectiveness and competence of the government could be significantly compromised.
Impact of Recent Reforms on Bureaucratic Autonomy and Political Control
In recent decades, particularly since the 1990s, there has been a concerted effort through various government reforms to centralize political leadership and increase the control of elected politicians over the policy-making process, which was historically dominated by bureaucrats 19. Over the past 30 years, this trend of centralizing political authority has intensified 19. Electoral reforms implemented in the 1990s played a role in this shift by forging stronger connections between politicians and their constituencies, thereby bolstering the political standing of elected officials 16. A significant step in this direction was the establishment of the Cabinet Personnel Bureau in 2014. This body was created with the explicit aim of granting the cabinet greater authority over the appointment of senior civil service officials 20. While the intention was to enhance political control and accountability, this move has also raised concerns about the potential for "politicized nominations" within the bureaucracy 4.
Furthermore, successive reforms have also placed restrictions on the practice of amakudari, the post-retirement employment of bureaucrats in private and quasi-governmental organizations 16. These restrictions aimed to curb potential conflicts of interest and undue influence. However, despite these efforts to enhance political control, concerns persist regarding the possibility of political pressures subtly undermining the professional autonomy and objectivity of civil servants. This has led to discussions about the emergence of a "bureaucratic culture of sontaku", where officials may prioritize currying favor with political leaders over adhering strictly to professional integrity and impartial advice 20. The primary focus of many of these reforms has been on strengthening political oversight of the bureaucracy, with perhaps less emphasis on proactively enhancing the specialized expertise and capabilities within the civil service itself 19. Consequently, while the reforms have undeniably aimed to shift the balance of power towards politicians, the bureaucracy continues to wield significant influence due to its expertise and institutional knowledge, and new challenges such as politicized appointments and the concerning decline in bureaucratic talent are now emerging 16. The optimal balance between robust political leadership and the effective utilization of bureaucratic expertise remains a complex and ongoing subject of debate within Japan 20. Some observers suggest that the reforms might have inadvertently led to a decrease in bureaucratic autonomy without a fully compensating increase in political expertise across all relevant policy areas.
IV. The Role and Responsibilities of Politicians in Japanese Politics
Formal Powers and Limitations of Politicians
Politicians in Japan, particularly those in leadership positions and within the ruling party, are vested with significant formal powers to shape the nation's policy and governance. The Prime Minister, as the head of government, holds a central role, wielding considerable executive authority. This includes the power to appoint and dismiss cabinet ministers, effectively choosing the team responsible for implementing government policies 1. Furthermore, the Prime Minister possesses the significant power to dissolve the House of Representatives, potentially triggering a general election 1. In recent years, reforms have further strengthened the Prime Minister's office (kantei), granting it increased control over both the bureaucracy and the ruling party 8. However, despite these considerable formal powers, the Prime Minister's ability to govern effectively is also subject to informal limitations, such as the level of support they command within their own political party, their overall public popularity, and their capacity to effectively influence the often-powerful bureaucracy 1.
Cabinet members, who are nominated by the Prime Minister and must be civilians 1, head the various government ministries. They are tasked with the crucial responsibility of administering the laws passed by the Diet and conducting the day-to-day affairs of the state. The members of the National Diet, elected directly by the people, hold the ultimate legislative power in Japan 1. They are responsible for the fundamental tasks of making laws, approving the national budget, and ratifying international treaties. The Diet is a bicameral legislature, consisting of the House of Representatives (the lower house) and the House of Councillors (the upper house). However, the House of Representatives is significantly more powerful, possessing the authority to force the resignation of the cabinet and to override decisions of the upper house on key matters such as the budget, treaties, and the designation of the Prime Minister 1. The lower house can even override the upper house's rejection or alteration of a bill if it is passed again by a two-thirds majority 1. While the Diet is formally recognized as the highest organ of state power 10, the concentration of authority in the lower house, particularly in areas like budget control and the selection of the head of government, makes it the dominant legislative body.
Relationship and Interactions with the Bureaucracy
Politicians in Japan maintain a complex and crucial relationship with the bureaucracy. Elected officials, particularly ministers and the Prime Minister, rely heavily on the expertise and institutional knowledge of the bureaucracy for the formulation of effective policies and the drafting of the necessary legislation 4. In fact, the bureaucracy plays a significant role even in the amendment of existing laws 17. In theory, bureaucrats are expected to act as loyal subordinates, diligently following the directives of their ministers 4. However, the reality of this relationship is often more nuanced. There have been instances where bureaucrats have been known to resist or subtly attempt to influence politicians, potentially leveraging their superior technical knowledge or their long tenure within the government 4. Furthermore, the historical practice of bureaucrats assisting politicians in securing benefits through "pork barrel politics" highlights another dimension of this interaction 17.
The dynamic between politicians and bureaucrats in Japan has evolved over time. While the bureaucracy held a dominant position in the post-war era, recent government reforms have aimed to strengthen the hand of political leadership 16. Despite these reforms, the relationship remains one of interdependence and potential friction. While politicians ultimately hold the formal authority and set the broad policy agenda, they are significantly reliant on the bureaucracy's specialized expertise and their capacity for policy implementation. Conversely, bureaucrats are expected to execute the directives of their political superiors but can also exert considerable influence through their deep understanding of governmental processes and their control over vital information 4. Achieving effective governance in Japan necessitates a productive and collaborative working relationship between these two groups; misalignment or conflict can significantly hinder policy implementation and impede national progress.
Criticisms of Politicians
Japanese politicians have faced a range of criticisms throughout the nation's post-war history. One of the most persistent issues has been the occurrence of numerous corruption scandals 5. These have included significant slush fund scandals, where politicians have been accused of improperly handling political funds 3. Ties to controversial organizations, such as the Unification Church, have also emerged as a major point of concern, raising ethical questions about political influence 2. Additionally, allegations of bribery and favoritism, as seen in the Moritomo Gakuen and Kake Gakuen scandals, have further damaged public trust in the integrity of political leaders 20. While the overall prevalence of corruption in the Japanese government might be relatively low compared to some other nations, the widespread and vigorous media coverage of these political corruption scandals ensures that they remain a significant issue in the public consciousness 2.
Another enduring characteristic of Japanese politics, particularly within the long-dominant LDP, is factionalism 33. These internal groupings within political parties can often lead to intense power struggles and can significantly hinder the process of cohesive policy-making, as factional interests may take precedence over broader national priorities in decision-making 33. This internal focus on power dynamics can sometimes distract from addressing the more pressing needs and challenges facing the nation. Furthermore, Japan has experienced a pattern of perceived lack of strong leadership, with a relatively high turnover of prime ministers since the LDP's formation 8. Many prime ministers have served for relatively short periods, which can impede the formulation and execution of long-term policy plans 7. The prevailing culture of consensus-driven leadership in Japan, while often valued, can also at times result in a lack of decisive action on critical issues 8.
Concerns also exist regarding the influence of special interests on Japanese politicians 2. Close relationships between government officials and business leaders have raised questions about potential conflicts of interest and whether policies are always made in the best interest of the general public. The common practice of retiring bureaucrats securing lucrative positions in companies that receive significant government contracts further fuels these concerns about undue influence 11. Finally, despite ongoing efforts and some progress, underrepresentation of women remains a significant criticism of Japanese politicians 2. While a nonbinding gender parity law exists, the actual representation of women in government, particularly in the more powerful House of Representatives, remains considerably low 11. This lack of gender balance limits the diversity of perspectives in political decision-making and may not fully reflect the composition of Japanese society.
Public Perception of Politicians Versus Bureaucrats
Historically, the Japanese public has held bureaucrats in relatively high esteem, often viewing them as competent, highly educated, and dedicated individuals who represent the nation's elite 8. There was a widespread belief that upward mobility into senior bureaucratic positions was based on merit, accessible to talented individuals regardless of their socio-economic background 8. However, a series of scandals involving the bureaucracy in recent years has somewhat tarnished this traditionally positive image 20. Simultaneously, the public has become increasingly less tolerant of "money politics" and the perception of corruption within the political sphere 8.
Overall, public trust in both politicians and bureaucrats in Japan appears to be facing significant challenges 3. Widespread dissatisfaction with the way democracy is currently functioning is evident, with favorability ratings for the long-dominant LDP having declined sharply 3. A significant portion of the Japanese adult population reports feeling no close connection to any particular political party, which could indicate a broader sense of disillusionment with the political system as a whole 3. This lack of enthusiasm is further reflected in consistently low voter turnout rates in national elections 3, which are among the lowest in OECD countries 3. Scandals involving both politicians and bureaucrats, coupled with a perceived lack of effective solutions to pressing national issues, have likely contributed to this erosion of public trust and the prevailing sense of apathy and pessimism among the electorate 3. Notably, when it comes to policy failures or perceived stagnation, the Japanese public often tends to place a significant portion of the blame on the bureaucracy 4.
V. Factors Contributing to Perceived Lack of Development in Japan
Interplay Between Bureaucratic Influence and Political Leadership
The intricate relationship between Japan's highly influential bureaucracy and its elected political leadership is a key factor in understanding the nation's trajectory of development. Historically, the bureaucracy has held a dominant position in the formulation and implementation of policy, and despite recent reforms aimed at strengthening political control, this influence persists and can create a degree of inertia and resistance to significant change 4. The bureaucracy's inherent institutional objectivity, while valuable in ensuring stability and a long-term perspective, can also represent an inherent bias towards maintaining the status quo 17.
Conversely, a lack of consistently strong and unified political leadership can inadvertently allow the established interests and preferences of the bureaucracy to prevail, potentially hindering the emergence and implementation of bold, new initiatives that might be necessary for addressing evolving national challenges 4. Some perspectives even suggest that Japan has been effectively governed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for an extended period, with bureaucrats primarily acting as instruments to carry out the party's agenda 18. Ultimately, achieving the optimal balance between empowering democratically elected political leaders and effectively leveraging the considerable expertise and institutional memory of the bureaucracy remains a significant and ongoing challenge in the Japanese political system 20. The effectiveness of governance often hinges on finding a harmonious and productive equilibrium between these two powerful groups.
Impact of LDP Dominance
The Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) remarkably long tenure as the dominant force in Japanese politics, while undoubtedly providing a high degree of political stability over several decades, may have also inadvertently contributed to a perceived lack of dynamism and a slower pace of development in certain critical areas 1. Japan stands out among other highly developed democracies for having experienced such a prolonged period of governance by a single party 3. This extended period of control may have resulted in a less robust and competitive political environment, potentially diminishing the pressure for radical reforms and innovative policy solutions. Furthermore, the LDP's deep-rooted reliance on established networks and traditional support bases might make it less agile and responsive to the evolving needs and priorities of younger generations and the emergence of new societal challenges 6. The recent series of scandals that have plagued the LDP have also eroded public trust in the government and its ability to effectively address the complex issues related to national development 3. The absence of a consistently strong and unified opposition party has also been noted as a potential weakness in Japan's democratic system 36.
Factionalism within Political Parties
Factionalism, a persistent characteristic of Japanese political parties, particularly within the LDP, represents another factor that can hinder cohesive and effective governance 33. The internal divisions and power struggles that often arise within these factions can divert attention and resources away from addressing broader national priorities. Policy debates within parties can become entangled in factional squabbling and jostling for influence 33. In some instances, the interests of specific factions may even take precedence over the overall national interest in crucial decision-making processes 33. This inherent fragmentation of political will can make it exceedingly challenging to formulate and implement coherent, long-term development strategies that require a unified political front 33. Moreover, the prevalence of factionalism within political parties can breed cynicism and disillusionment among the voting public 33.
Corruption and its Impact
Political corruption, while its statistical prevalence in Japan might be relatively low, casts a long shadow over the nation's development trajectory 2. Instances of corruption can lead to the misallocation of valuable resources, foster inefficient public spending, and undermine the essential principles of transparency and accountability in governmental processes 2. The frequent occurrence of political scandals, even if involving relatively small sums compared to other nations, can significantly erode public trust in the government and its institutions. This erosion of trust can, in turn, lead to public disengagement and hinder the kind of broad-based cooperation that is often necessary for achieving meaningful national progress. Corruption, in its various forms, acts as a substantial impediment to national development by undermining the foundations of good governance and diverting crucial resources away from their most productive uses 46.
Economic Stagnation and Social Barriers
Japan has grappled with prolonged periods of economic stagnation, a significant factor that can limit crucial investment in various aspects of national development and contribute to a pervasive sense of pessimism about the future 7. Furthermore, the nation faces a range of pressing social issues, including a rapidly aging population, a persistently low birth rate, and ongoing challenges related to gender inequality 2. The underrepresentation of women in key areas of government and the workforce represents a significant barrier to fully harnessing the nation's potential 2. These economic and social challenges are not isolated; they are intricately intertwined with the political landscape and can collectively contribute to a perceived lack of overall progress in addressing some of Japan's most fundamental issues 7. The apparent inability of successive governments to decisively tackle these deeply rooted problems has further fueled public frustration and a sense of stagnation.
VI. Geothermal Energy in Japan: Current Status and Challenges
Japan's Geothermal Potential
Japan is endowed with the third-largest geothermal resources in the world, estimated to have a potential capacity of approximately 23 gigawatts (GW) 50. This vast potential is roughly equivalent to the output of 23 nuclear reactors 56. The country's geological activity, with over 100 volcanoes, significantly contributes to these abundant geothermal prospects 52. Estimates suggest that around 1,500 existing hot water wells and springs could be utilized to generate a substantial amount of power without the need for additional drilling 52. This significant, largely untapped geothermal energy potential represents a substantial opportunity for Japan to bolster its energy independence and make significant strides towards achieving its decarbonization goals 51. The sheer scale of this resource indicates a promising avenue for reducing Japan's reliance on imported fossil fuels.
Current Installed Capacity and Contribution to Energy Mix
Despite its immense geothermal potential, Japan's current installed geothermal power generation capacity remains relatively modest. As of 2022, there were 98 geothermal power plants in operation across the country, with a total installed capacity of approximately 540 megawatts (MW) 50. Some sources provide slightly different figures, reporting capacities around 535 MW or 600 MW 51. In terms of its contribution to the overall energy mix, geothermal power generation accounted for only about 0.3% of Japan's total power production in fiscal years 2021 and 2023 51. This level of utilization places Japan around the 10th position globally in terms of installed geothermal capacity 50. The significant disparity between Japan's vast geothermal potential and its current level of utilization indicates the presence of substantial barriers hindering the development of this promising renewable energy source. The fact that geothermal energy contributes such a small fraction of the total electricity generation highlights the underutilization of a major domestic resource.
Challenges Hindering Development
The development of Japan's substantial geothermal energy resources has been hampered by a complex interplay of challenges. A major obstacle is the fact that approximately 80% of the country's geothermal potential is located within designated national and quasi-national parks 50. These areas are protected due to their ecological and scenic value, and development has historically faced stringent regulations aimed at environmental conservation.
Another significant impediment comes from the influential onsen (hot springs) industry and local communities that depend on it. They often strongly oppose geothermal development due to concerns about potential adverse effects on the quality, quantity, and temperature of hot spring water, as well as the potential for negative impacts on the natural scenery that attracts tourists 51. The national Hot Springs Law grants onsen owners considerable influence, effectively giving them a form of veto power over proposed drilling projects in their vicinity 56. This tension between geothermal energy development and the preservation of onsen culture represents a significant hurdle.
Geothermal projects are also characterized by high upfront costs associated with exploration, drilling, and the construction of power plants. These projects often have long development timelines, sometimes exceeding a decade from initial exploration to the commencement of operations 51. The process of drilling down to potential geothermal reservoirs can be exceptionally expensive, and the success rate of finding a viable heat source is relatively low, estimated to be around 30% 55. Furthermore, there are inherent technical difficulties involved in accurately locating geothermal reservoirs with sufficient steam and hot water and then successfully drilling wells to access them 55. Geothermal energy for electricity generation also has a relatively low electrical efficiency, typically around 10% 64.
Concerns regarding potential environmental impacts and the possibility of induced seismic activity also pose challenges to geothermal development 51. Finally, gaining societal acceptance from local stakeholders is a fundamental barrier that affects almost all other aspects of geothermal development, including financial, technical, and political risks 51. This complex web of regulatory restrictions, strong opposition from vested interests, significant financial and technical hurdles, and genuine social concerns has collectively hindered the widespread development of Japan's substantial geothermal energy resources. The "green versus green" dilemma, where the pursuit of renewable energy clashes with the desire to preserve natural landscapes and the cultural significance of onsen, is a particularly salient obstacle 72.
VII. Government Policies and Initiatives for Geothermal Energy Development
In recognition of the potential of geothermal energy, the Japanese government has implemented several policies and initiatives aimed at promoting its development. A key measure is the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system, which was introduced in June 2012 with the specific goal of improving the economic viability of geothermal projects 50. Under this system, electricity generated from geothermal sources is guaranteed a purchase price. For larger power plants with a capacity of 15,000 kilowatts (kW) or more, the price is set at 26 yen per kilowatt-hour (kWh), while smaller plants below this threshold receive a higher price of 40 yen/kWh 50. This FIT system has been credited with sparking a renewed interest in geothermal energy development, particularly for smaller-scale projects that benefit from the more attractive tariff 52.
The government has also undertaken deregulation efforts concerning geothermal development within national parks. Recognizing that a significant portion of Japan's geothermal resources lies within these protected areas, regulations have been gradually eased since 2012 50. This has increased the prospective area available for geothermal development within national parks from approximately 25% to around 60% of the country 50. Current guidelines now permit drilling in "Class 1 Special Zones," provided that developers employ diagonal drilling techniques and construct facilities outside the most strictly protected areas 55.
The Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) plays a crucial role in supporting geothermal energy development in Japan 50. JOGMEC provides a wide array of support mechanisms, including subsidies for geological surveys such as surface exploration and drilling, as well as investment and debt guarantees. The organization is also actively involved in research and development efforts and the dissemination of crucial information related to geothermal energy 50. Furthermore, JOGMEC conducts promotional programs aimed at increasing public understanding of geothermal development and collaborates with foreign agencies on joint research and the advancement of geothermal technologies 50.
The Japanese government has also established targets and future plans for expanding geothermal energy production. The current aim is to increase the share of renewable energy sources to between 36% and 38% of the total power consumption by 2030, with geothermal energy expected to contribute 1% to this target 55. There are also plans to triple the nation's geothermal energy output within this decade 57. Prime Minister Ishiba has expressed support for potentially raising the target for geothermal energy to 1%-2% by the year 2040 56. In 2021, the government developed the "Acceleration of Geothermal Development Plan" 101. While these policies and initiatives signal a renewed focus on geothermal energy, particularly in the context of the Fukushima nuclear disaster and the pressing need for energy diversification 50, some observers suggest that the stated targets might still be relatively modest when considering the nation's vast geothermal potential 53. It is also important to acknowledge that past policy approaches have not always been successful in significantly boosting geothermal energy production 66. The ultimate effectiveness of these current policies will depend on their ability to overcome the fundamental barriers related to regulations, local opposition, and the economic viability of geothermal projects.
VIII. Successful Examples and Future Prospects of Geothermal Energy in Japan
Despite the various challenges, there are encouraging examples of successful geothermal energy development in Japan, offering insights into potential future pathways. One notable case is Tsuchiyu Onsen in Fukushima Prefecture, a renowned hot spring resort area. Here, a small-scale binary geothermal power plant with a capacity of 400 kW has been operating successfully since 2015 without any negative impact on the quality or quantity of the local hot spring water 51. This plant even provides additional benefits to the local community, including funding for free bus rides for children and seniors and supporting local businesses 76. Another successful example is Yumura Onsen in Hyogo Prefecture, which has installed two small binary geothermal power plants at a local day spa, demonstrating the potential for geothermal energy to coexist harmoniously with traditional hot spring facilities 105. Several other small-scale geothermal projects are being developed across Japan in close cooperation with onsen operators, further illustrating the growing recognition that these two sectors can indeed coexist and even be mutually beneficial 51. These successful case studies, particularly the example of Tsuchiyu Onsen, serve as compelling models for how Japan can harness its vast geothermal potential without compromising its rich cultural heritage and the economic importance of its onsen industry.
Japan also possesses significant technological advancements and research capabilities in the field of geothermal energy. Japanese companies are recognized as world leaders in the supply of geothermal turbines and have developed advanced technologies for the exploration, development, utilization, and monitoring of geothermal resources 51. Ongoing research efforts are focused on enhancing the efficiency and reducing the environmental footprint of geothermal power plants, particularly through the development of binary and other low-temperature geothermal systems 51. Promising new technologies, such as "thermal-shock drilling" and next-generation geothermal systems, are also being researched and developed, which could further improve the cost-effectiveness and accessibility of geothermal energy 56. Additionally, research into enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), which aims to extract heat from deep, impermeable rocks, holds the potential to make geothermal energy cost-competitive with conventional power sources in the near future 108. Leveraging its strong technological base and continuing to invest in research and development will be crucial for Japan to overcome the technical challenges associated with geothermal energy and to expand the utilization of its lower-temperature resources.
Developing its abundant geothermal resources offers Japan a significant pathway towards achieving greater energy independence and decarbonization. By tapping into this vast domestic energy source, Japan can reduce its reliance on imported fossil fuels, thereby enhancing its energy security and resilience 51. Furthermore, geothermal energy is a clean and sustainable alternative to fossil fuels, producing near-zero carbon dioxide emissions during power generation 51. This makes it a vital component in Japan's efforts to meet its carbon neutrality goals and combat climate change 51. Some experts even suggest that geothermal energy could potentially replace a portion of Japan's nuclear power capacity, further diversifying its energy portfolio 87. While significant challenges remain, the increasing government support, ongoing technological advancements, and the emergence of successful coexistence models offer a positive outlook for the future contribution of geothermal energy to Japan's overall energy mix. Small-scale geothermal plants, in particular, are playing an important role in increasing public understanding and acceptance of this renewable energy source, potentially paving the way for larger-scale developments in the future 51.
IX. Conclusion
The analysis reveals a Japanese political system at a critical juncture. The long-standing dominance of the LDP is being challenged by recent electoral shifts, leading to a complex political landscape characterized by a minority government and a greater need for cross-party cooperation. The intricate interplay between a historically influential bureaucracy and a political leadership undergoing reforms continues to shape policy outcomes, with both actors facing criticisms regarding their roles and effectiveness. Factors such as factionalism, corruption, and socio-economic challenges contribute to a perceived lack of progress in addressing some of Japan's most pressing national issues.
One such area demanding attention is the underutilization of Japan's vast geothermal energy resources. Despite possessing the third-largest potential globally, its current contribution to the energy mix remains minimal due to a combination of regulatory hurdles, opposition from the onsen industry, high development costs, and technical complexities. However, the government is demonstrating a renewed commitment to promoting geothermal energy through initiatives like feed-in tariffs and deregulation efforts. Successful examples of geothermal plants coexisting with onsen resorts, coupled with Japan's strong technological capabilities in this sector, offer a promising vision for the future.
To fully realize the potential of geothermal energy and to foster broader national development, several recommendations emerge. Strengthening political leadership and ensuring greater accountability are crucial. Promoting a more transparent and responsive bureaucracy while effectively leveraging its expertise is also essential. Comprehensive reforms aimed at addressing corruption and the negative impacts of factionalism within political parties are necessary to build public trust and enhance governance. For the geothermal sector specifically, developing a clear and long-term strategic plan with ambitious targets is vital. Fostering collaboration and trust between the geothermal industry and local communities, particularly the onsen sector, is paramount. Continued investment in research and development to advance geothermal technologies and reduce costs, along with streamlining regulatory processes while safeguarding environmental protection, will be key to unlocking this significant domestic renewable energy resource. By strategically addressing these political and energy-related challenges, Japan has the potential to leverage its considerable resources and expertise to achieve both sustained political progress and a more sustainable energy future.
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102. Putting an End to Misguided Energy Policies for Japan | New Year's Column, 3月 17, 2025にアクセス、 https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/activities/column/REupdate/20230111.php
103. Japan's post-Fukushima Challenge - Implications from the German Experience on Renewable Energy Policy, 3月 17, 2025にアクセス、 https://epg.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/energy-politics-group-dam/documents/Journal%20Articles/Huenteler%20et%20al_2012_Energy%20Policy.pdf
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105. Popular Hot Springs in Japan Co-exist with Binary Geothermal Power Plants - Factor This™, 3月 17, 2025にアクセス、 https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/energy-business/popular-hot-springs-in-japan-co-exist-with-binary-geothermal-power-plants/
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107. Hot spring baths block Japan's geothermal potential - New Vision Official, 3月 17, 2025にアクセス、 https://www.newvision.co.ug/category/agriculture/hot-spring-baths-block-japans-geothermal-pote-155908
108. The future of geothermal for reliable clean energy | Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, 3月 17, 2025にアクセス、 https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/future-geothermal-reliable-clean-energy
109. Japan's simmering battle over geothermal energy | ABC News - YouTube, 3月 17, 2025にアクセス、 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfUSrQrVhFg
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